Draft Recap...Trades Coming?

Hello hockey fans, Blues fans, and FORF fans looking to view Marty Winkler’s latest Cards analysis. After an intense forty-eight hours and another day for recovery the news surrounding the draft is starting to slow.  However before we get down to business, I would like to invite a round of applause from all you FORF fans.  Yes, we are congratulating yours truly.  If anyone questioned my credibility, I’m sure those questions were answered when I successfully picked the top four picks in last Friday’s NHL Draft.  I’ll pause to let the cheers from my parents in the back row die down a bit. 

                         

  Now to the matter at hand.  Following the draft and the recent buyout of Jay McKee’s contract. I believe there is big news on the horizon for Blues fans. 

The 2009 draft choices have left me slightly baffled.  The Blues need an elite goal scorer, and soon.  Keith Tkachuk is on limited time before he retires, as is Paul Kariya, and neither are goal scorers anymore.  Brad Boyes is streaky at best and needs a quality setup guy to be effective.  After a 40-goal binge in 2008, it seems he will grow into a 25-35-goal scorer.  David Perron, Andy McDonald and T.J. Oshie are all solid players but not one of them will probably hit the fifty-goal mark.  Finally Patrik Berglund will probably take a couple of years before he becomes the goal scorer the Blues believe he will be.  So the Blues face a problem, too many setup guys, not enough scorers.  Dany Heately is available for trade, but he comes with a price tag and baggage.  The two Marians, Hossa and Gaborik are available via free agency; it’ll take more than a student loan to Harvard Law to sign one of them.  But finally, there’s Phil Kessel.  Rumor has it that the Blues had actually traded for Kessel in 2009, but the paperwork hadn’t made it to the NHL before the deadline.

 

Both sides deny this rumor, but regardless the rumor suggests interest between both parties in dealing.  But I won’t waste your time with rumors, lets check out the facts.

            Jarmo Kekalainen is known around hockey as a guy who will often go off the board on draft day to get a player he wants. Jarmo has said time and time again that he refuses to draft for team needs and instead will always take the best available player at the time.  This is where I become confused.  

                                                      

  I believe when the Blues selected David Rundblad as the 17^th overall pick, there were two players available not only better, but also better suited for the Blues.  Let’s start with 5^th ranked North American skater and my personal pick, Jordan Schroeder.  Most mock drafts including my own, had him taken by the 12^th pick.  He did however fall to 22^nd overall.  At 5’8 size may have played a role, so I’ll let that one slide. But Jacob Josefson?  He’s a Swedish dynamo that could play with Patrik Berglund or Brad Boyes and make them both 30-40-goal scorers, while scoring 30 himself.  He’s the third best European skater in the draft.  I know the rule of thumb is, “build your team from the net out,” but frankly the Blues have already done so.  This team is stacked on the blue line for years to come with Eric Johnson (1^st overall in 2006), Alex Pietrangelo (4^th overall 2008), and Ian Cole (18^th overall 2007).  Not to mention the already established youngsters Carlo Colaiacovo (17^th overall 2001) and Roman Polak (a Jarmo steal at 180^th overall in 2004).  Fill in vets Barret Jackman, Eric Brewer, and Mike Weaver and the team already struggles to trim the list down to the seven D needed for a game.  Then there’s Jonas Junland, Cade Fairchild, and David Warsofsky, all players who will have solid NHL careers.            

            So why draft three more defensemen when the team lacks an elite lamp lighter?  Here’s where the excitement comes in.  I believe the trade winds are blowing in St. Louis.  Buying out the final year of Jay McKee’s four million dollar deal opens up salary cap room for the Blues.  Trading from the wealth of team defense may free up even more room.  I won’t stake my reputation on it just yet, but I will however gloat in my next column if Bruins star forward Phil Kessel wears the Blue Note soon.  

Struggling Pitcher? Cards Can Cure What Ails Ya!

The acquisition of Mark DeRosa should give Cardinal fans hope, but in his Redbird debut, DeRosa fell victim to the same hitless plague that has infected the bats of everyone on the roster (with the obvious exception of Albert Pujols). Francisco Liriano is the latest struggling pitcher that has turned into Cy Young while facing St. Louis this year. Going into the game, Liriano had compiled a 3-8 win-loss record with a whopping 5.88 ERA. Throwing statistics aside, Liriano found a way to make the baseball disappear as it crossed the plate as he pitched seven innings of one run ball using only 97 pitches to get there.

The Cardinal offense isn’t exactly the hardest to tame, but what’s amazing is the after-effect that mastering the Cards seems to have on struggling pitchers. After a pitcher does his best Nolan Ryan impression against St. Louis, he continues to pitch like a hall of famer afterwards. In a way, the Cardinal offense jump starts the opponents struggling pitchers. Here are a few examples.

JORGE DE LA ROSA










Before pitching against St. Louis, De la Rosa hadn’t won a single game and had compiled an 0-6 record. Leading up to the game, De la Rosa hadn’t made it passed the fifth inning in his previous three starts. But against the Cards, he managed to go six and two-thirds in an 11-4 Colorado Rockies victory. Since mastering the Redbird’s lineup, De la Rosa is 3-1 and has gotten passed the fifth inning in three of his four starts.


AARON COOK
After De la Rosa’s performance, Aaron Cook knocked the Cards bats out the very next day, pitching eight innings and only giving up one run in a 10-1 Colorado beat down. Before that, Cook was having a sub par season accumulating a 3-3 record with an ERA close to 5.00. Since then, Cook has won four straight decisions and his season ERA is 3.77. If this isn’t finding your groove then I don’t know what is.


Of course, this could just be because the Rockies have decided they only want to lose once every ten games. But let’s look at a team that the Cards recently paid a visit who is still struggling: The Cleveland Indians.

CLIFF LEE
The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner got off to a fairly rocky start this season, losing three of his first four decisions and compiling a 5.25 ERA. But as the Cards have proven this season, statistics mean absolutely nothing when you can’t hit. Lee pitched a complete game shutout against St. Louis and only gave up three hits the entire game. Since then, Lee has gone at least seven innings in his two starts since and has given up a total of five runs combined. His season ERA now stands at an impressive 2.92.

DAVID HUFF

OK, you could argue that Cliff Lee is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, so he was bound to come around. But what about unproven rookie David Huff? I know what you’re thinking: “An unproven rookie pitcher with an ERA over six beat the Cardinals? I don’t believe it!” Well, it definitely wasn’t the first time it’s happened this year and, with the way things are going, it definitely won’t be the last. Before going seven and a third against St. Louis in a 7-3 win, Huff’s ERA was 8.71. In fact, in that game alone, the Cards helped Huff lower his ERA by OVER A WHOLE RUN! Since that game, Huff has started three games, during which his ERA has been 2.00.

So will this trend affect Francisco Liriano as well? We’ll have to wait and see. And what can the Cardinals themselves do about this? I suggest that they start charging pitchers to pitch against this team so the opposition can get their groove back. Why not make a little money off of your struggles? You’re helping people get their careers back on track, it’s only fair that you share in some of the profit. Besides, Bill DeWitt could use the extra cash to build a new softball field.

NHL Draft Day '09

            Ladies and gents, the day is finally here!  It’s been a long wait, but fear not, the anticipation will be well worth it.  The NHL draft is upon us at last, and with the 2009 draft comes not just one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory, but also one of the most variable in terms of selection predictions.  Simply put the talent pool is so deep that close to any player could be selected at any position in the first round. 

This is most evident at the top where for the first time since 2003 there is no true consensus first pick.  Naturally the favorite to go number 1 is the remarkably skilled John Tavares whose highlight reel goals dazzled even the casual ESPN hockey fan during the World Junior Championship last Winter.   

However a strong argument can be made for Victor Hedman, Sweden’s own version of Ivan Drago on skates.  At 6’6 and 220lbs this 18 year old man-boy has already inspired comparisons to Chris Pronger, and would be a great choice for a team looking to rebuild its team from the net out (Islander fans your prayers have been answered).  If Hedman goes first overall, look for teams to try to deal with Tampa for the second pick and a shot at Tavares. 

Long shots for the number one pick include Evander Kane, and Matt Duchene, two dynamic centers guaranteed to round out the top four and make a General Manager giddy with excitement. 

Normally the Blues’ front office would be salivating for either Duchene or Kane, or both, but Blues fans instead watched the team make a playoff run and drop into the lower half of the first round.  Fortunately for Jarmo, and CO, the talent flows like wine.  The Blues find themselves at a crossroads for JD’s rebuilding agenda.  With the 17^th pick anyone from Jordan Schroeder, (an exciting American forward from Minnesota) to Jacob Josefson (an explosive two-way playmaker from Sweden whom Patrik Berglund could benfit from) could be in play.  But with the 17^th pick and a previously successful season (ahead of schedule mind you) comes the temptation to deal for the quick fix.  Over the short offseason, multiple sources and bloggers have mentioned Dan Heatley, Chris Pronger, and even Phil Kessel as players the Blues may take a run at.  Andy Strickland of www.Hockeybuzz.com wrote recently that the Blues are looking to make a splash on draft day.  With a wealth of prospects, could some blockbuster deals be on the horizon?  As the best and only hockey expert employed by From Out of…Right Field, I can confidently say a big deal involving T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, or Alex Pietrangelo is a huge mistake at this stage in the rebuilding process.  Everyone knows you don’t open a fine bottle of wine in the first two years.  You let it age into something you can truly savor.  Mark my words, those four players are perennial all stars within three years from now, and probably sooner.

            As for my predictions, John Tavares will go number one, and the Blues will select Jacob Josefson with the 17^th pick, or will possibly trade up for a shot at Jordan Schroeder.  Since it’s my blog, I don’t have to decide for sure. 

            Finally.  I know most of you have torn the last page off of your draft day countdown calendars and have already settled in with your twelve pack of Labatt Blue on ice waiting for Six p.m.  But for the rest of you I have developed a checklist of 6 questions to answer before you can enjoy the draft. 

1.     Do I have Versus?

2.     What channel is Versus? 

3.     Have I seen John Tavares’ brilliance? (see above video)

4.     Why would the Blues want Chris Pronger again?

5.     How do I actually pronounce Jarmo Kekalainen?  Do I know who he is?

6.     Why do they boo Gary Bettman so much?

The answers are available online…Enjoy the draft people! 

Protecting El Hombre

After the debacle that was the four game series with the Mets, in which the Cardinals were lucky to even win a single game thanks to a masterful pitching performance by Joel Pineiro (bet you NEVER thought you would hear “masterful performance” and “Joel Pineiro” in the same sentence), the Cardinals offensive problems became even more clear. After one Albert Pujols, there is not much pop to this lineup. But then again, after Albert Pujols, how can the batter that follows him even compare? We are witnessing one of the best players to ever play the game of baseball. Pujols is crushing the ball at an unprecedented rate and with his .356 batting average with runners in scoring position, he is driving in runs at a record rate as well.

While Cardinals fans are blessed with the bat and presence of Albert Pujols, they are also cursed with the bat and presence of Albert Pujols. Touting the horn of almost every major sports writer, there is NO REASON to pitch to this guy, especially when he has nobody backing him up. Right now, the Cards are experiencing a power outage in the cleanup spot. Overall, the Cards are batting .224 as a team in the number four slot with a grand total of 48 RBIs and 13 home runs. Compared to Pujols’ .324 average, 26 home runs and 70 RBIs, it’s clear that no matter who is in that clean up hole, pitching around Pujols is the smart option.

This was not always the case. In 2004, the Cardinals won 105 games on their way to a National League Pennant and an appearance in the World Series. That year, Pujols had the protection he rightfully deserved and needed. The Cardinals batted an above par .286 with 35 home runs and 122 RBIs over the course of the entire season. This was caused mostly by the other two members of the MV3, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, the latter taking most of the at-bats from the four spot on his way to an MVP caliber season.

Even last year protecting Pujols was not as hard of a task. The Cardinals batted a respectable .267 as a team, smashing 34 home runs and tallying 113 RBIs. But this year’s version of the Cardinals is not that different from last year’s. What is it that has changed?

If you guessed it’s because Troy Glaus has been hurt all season, you’d be wrong. Granted the absence of Glaus’s bat has been a factor in the lack of offense this season, he only had 114 at-bats last year in the cleanup spot. Ryan Ludwick was the lucky one who protected Pujols last year and he did a splendid job collecting 20 home runs and nearly 60 RBIs on his way to building a .295 batting average from the four hole. Now THAT’S protection.

This year, however, has been a slightly different story. Ludwick has not been as dependable. Granted he has been hurt, but he is clearly not seeing the ball correctly.

Rick Ankiel, who split time with Ludwick in the 4th spot last year, is yet to have a hit in that spot. During this four game set with the Mets, Ankiel alone stranded six base runners from the four hole. Ankiel is struggling this year, there’s no doubt about that, and it’s beginning to look like struggling is just another day at the office for Ankiel. I like the guy, how could you not? But pitchers are beginning to figure him out, and until he makes some proper adjustments, he’s not your answer to protect Pujols.

So, who do you put in that spot? Ludwick is struggling as I previously stated, but he does have some upside. Ludwick is the only other Cardinal besides Pujols to be batting over .300 with runners in scoring position (.321 to be exact). My advice is to always go with him. He will get pitches to hit. And if he’s in the lineup everyday, it’s only a matter of time until his overall average starts climbing back toward the .300 mark.

So, how do you protect the best hitter in the game? It’s not an easy task and I don’t envy Tony LaRussa trying to find the perfect side dish to Albert’s main course. Although, another option may be one that LaRussa simply hasn’t explored. Why not put El Hombre himself in the four spot? Think about it. If Albert comes to bat in the first inning, then that means there HAS to be a runner on base, which is always the situation you want when Albert comes to bat. If he doesn’t get that first inning at bat, then he’s leading off the next inning. If pitchers choose to pitch to him, then that’s awesome. It’s not the ideal situation, but Pujols will see some pitches to hit. If pitchers want to pitch around him and lead the inning off with a runner on first, then that’s great. The opposition is giving a struggling offense a jump start that they desperately need.

So why not let Albert protect Albert? You’re already not scoring enough runs. What’s the worst that can happen?