The last couple years have not been too kind to the Cardinals come September as late season collapses have done in any hopes of postseason baseball in St. Louis. In 2007, the Cards were attempting to make a playoff push despite the fact that Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen were in severe decline and Albert Pujols was having the worst year of his career (I use the term “worst” very loosely). However, the Cards managed to be seven games out of the Wild Card race with a little over a month to go. The team would go on a tear for a week and actually get to a season high one game over .500 and be only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card lead. But that was short lived as the team went on to lose nine games in a row.
The 2008 version was slightly better. At this time last year, the Cards stood at 73-59 and were in the midst of playing their best baseball all season. They were only 3.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the Wild Card lead. However, fortunes turned quickly as just a week later, the Cards dropped to 74-63. Things only got worse from there as they played a game under .500 the rest of the way to finish four games out of the Wild Card.
The Cardinals currently lead the Central Division by 8 games and with the way the Cubs are playing, postseason play could almost be a certainty. The Cardinals also have history on their side as they have never blown a lead this large with so few games left in the season. When you have a large lead, you don’t have to play great; you just have to play well enough to survive.
Take the 2006 World Champion version of this Cardinal squad. On August 25, 2006, the Cards lead the Central Division by just one game with a record of 67-60. Ten days later, they had turned that into a 6 game lead and were eleven games over .500. We all remember what happened with that team. They struggled almost the rest of the month, at one point losing seven games in a row but held on just long enough to win the division. If that team can hold on long enough to make the playoffs, I am confident that the 2009 version, which is much more talented in all facets of the game, will be able to hold off a struggling and quite injured Chicago Cubs ball club.
Several things would have to go wrong for this team to not be playing in October. But there have been so many things that have gone wrong already this year, and yet, the team has been in first place the majority of the season (91 game days) and have been no further back than three games out of the lead. Chris Carpenter was out for over a month and still the team fought through it. Adam Wainwright struggled with control problems in his first few starts but still, the team fought through it. Todd Wellemeyer forgot how to throw a baseball, and the team survived long enough for him to wind up in the bullpen and then the DL. Kyle Lohse has been hurt several times in freak accidents and hasn’t been the same pitcher, but the team has prevailed. The offense didn’t wake up until late July and the team prevailed. This team even survived having to put out a lineup that had both Chris Duncan and a poorly hitting Rick Ankiel in it. If surviving that dreaded combination isn’t a sign that this team is destined to make the playoffs, than I don’t know what is.
Even having to survive all of those ordeals, there were several things that did go right for this team. Things that will have to continue to go right for this team to go deep into the playoffs.
1. CHRIS CARPENTER AND ADAM WAINWRIGHT
The Cardinals two best pitchers both have 14 wins, which is good enough to be tied for second for the Major League lead. Both have an ERA well under 3.00. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Carpenter’s last six starts, with Carpenter receiving the winning decision in five of them. Both Carpenter and Wainwright must continue to anchor this team’s rotation for the club to be successful in the coming month as the offense still shows signs of sluggishness (look at previous road trip for example).
2. JOEL PINEIRO
Pineiro picked the perfect time to establish his deadly sinker which has allowed him to accumulate the most groundouts in the Majors (282). Pineiro hasn’t lost since June 28 and is in the midst of having his best season since 2003 with the Seattle Mariners when he went 16-11 with a 3.78 ERA. If Pineiro continues to have a career year, there is no question that this team will be playing in October.
3. CARDINAL OFFENSE
The acquisition of Matt Holliday has definitely panned out the way the Cardinals need it to….so far. In 28 games with St. Louis, Holliday has hit .398 and driven in 27 RBIs as well as belting six homers. With Holliday hitting the way he has, not to mention Ryan Ludwick taking better and better swings at the plate, the offense has definitely come to life in the last month or so. However, the team must score more runs at home to help out their pitchers. In 60 home games, the Cardinals have scored 253 runs, good enough for an average of 4.21 runs per game, as opposed to 66 games on the road and scoring 312 runs to average 4.72 runs a game. This team is making a run at having home field advantage throughout the National League side of the playoffs, which means scoring at home is that much more important. If this team can continue to average nearly five funs a game on the road and start scoring more at home, you are looking at a trip to the World Series.
4. ALBERT PUJOLS
This might seem redundant since we just discussed the importance of the Cardinal offense, but Pujols is a side of the Cardinal attack all by himself. He has noticeably cooled off since the All-Star Break, but that was to be expected. His presence in the lineup is help enough for the Cardinals. With Pujols batting in the three hole, teams start having to second guess themselves frequently, especially since Holliday and Ludwick are backing him up. Albert must continue to stay healthy and play consistently for the offense to run on all cylinders. If not, the Cards could be in trouble.
5. JOHN SMOLTZ
With Kyle Lohse landing on the DL again, Smoltz’s presence becomes that much more important. After one start, it appears that Carpenter’s verdict that Smoltz had been tipping pitches was correct as Smoltz pitched five shut out innings against the Padres while striking out nine (seven in a row at one point). Smoltz will most likely be making more starts than previously expected, and if Lohse isn’t able to pitch at an appropriate level, Smoltz may be thrown into the postseason rotation. Even if Smoltz does end up in the bullpen, which is pretty likely, he will be able to pitch the 7th or 8th inning which is becoming more and more problematic as Jason Motte struggles and Kyle McClellan begins to tire.
If all these things go correctly, the Cards will waltz into October. If not, well, you can look on the bright side, the Cardinals aren’t the New York Mets.
BONUS BLOG!
If appears that the conspiracy against Chris Duncan is a nationwide thing. Less than a month after being traded, Duncan was released by the Red Sox before he even made a single plate appearance for Boston. In 92 at-bats for the Pawtucket Red Sox (Boston’s Triple A Affiliate), Duncan hit .188 with 2 homers. Meanwhile, Julio Lugo continues to bat over .300 for St. Louis.
MORE BONUS BLOG!
We aren’t all baseball and hockey here at fromoutofrightfield.blogspot.com, we are also avid football fans, especially college football. Posted below is a link to a rant about the Missouri Tigers and the call from other Big XII schools that the Tiger’s should be “humbled” this year. Hope you all enjoy.
A TIGER RANT!
http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/missouri-tigers.php?message=6815284
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